One of the biggest overlooked side effects of the recent explosion in artificial intelligence has been its ever-increasing energy demand. While the technology world produces more environmentally friendly alternatives even for household light bulbs in the fight against climate change, it acts much more carelessly when it comes to data centers that consume electricity equivalent to entire cities. One argument put forward against these criticisms is that AI will offer benefits great enough to justify this enormous energy demand. It is even argued that AI will directly assist humanity in combating climate change, with projections shared that it could reduce global emissions by 5 to 10 percent by 2030. However, a new report indicates that there is not much evidence to substantiate this argument.
AI Companies' Optimistic Outlook Doesn't Align with Concrete Data
A report published this week by climate-focused non-governmental organizations Beyond Fossil Fuels and Climate Action Against Disinformation scrutinized 154 different claims made by technology companies and corporate sources that "AI will be beneficial for the climate." According to the study, authored by energy analyst Ketan Joshi, 74% of these claims lack any verifiable evidence. This indicates a significant gap between the optimistic picture painted by the industry regarding climate and concrete data.
One point particularly highlighted in the report is that most of the examples attributed to environmental benefits are based on older, relatively less energy-intensive machine learning applications, rather than today's generative AI systems. Yet, the primary factor accelerating data center investments and energy consumption recently has been generative AI tools. According to the analysis, there is no concrete example demonstrating direct and measurable emission reductions for consumer-facing systems like ChatGPT, Gemini, or Grok.
Researchers also examined corporate reports frequently referenced by the industry. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) analysis of AI's potential impacts on climate is noted to show a balanced distribution among academic studies, company documents, and unverified claims, but the numerical projections presented are controversial. Specifically, predictions such as "AI could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 5-10 percent by 2030" are stated not to be based on a strong empirical foundation.
Another issue highlighted in the report is the increasing energy cost of artificial intelligence. Large language models and generative AI systems are trained and operated in massive data centers. These centers consume high amounts of electricity. Even reports shared by companies like Google and Microsoft confirm that the increase in emissions over the last five years largely stems from data centers. Independent research on energy consumption also supports this picture. Data centers, which accounted for 3% of total electricity consumption in the US three years ago, are expected to be responsible for 8% of electricity consumption by 2030, which might even be an optimistic estimate.
According to the experts who prepared the report, the "AI for Climate" narrative may have become a distraction used by companies to mask the growing environmental burden of their data centers.
In conclusion, this analysis directly challenges the optimistic narrative that artificial intelligence can be a solution to the climate crisis. While the potential benefits of AI are not entirely disregarded, when considering the energy footprint of the current wave of generative AI, there is a significant discrepancy between the picture painted by the industry and real-world data.
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