The escalating tension between the US and Iran has begun to be felt in the global automotive ecosystem not just as a geopolitical crisis, but as a multi-layered economic shock. A wide range of impacts, from energy prices to supply chains, logistics costs to consumer behavior, directly affects manufacturers, consumers, and the aftermarket service sector. According to experts, while the effects of such shocks are felt quickly, it can take months or even years for the system to rebalance.
The first and fastest reflection of the tension was seen in energy markets. Brent crude oil prices rose to $119 per barrel, nearing their highest levels since the start of the war. Iran's de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a significant contraction in global oil supply, rapidly pushing prices upward. This increase directly reflected in fuel prices. Fuel prices in many countries, including Europe, Turkey, the US, and Asia, have risen to their highest levels in recent years.
Rising Oil Prices Created a Chain Reaction
The rise in oil prices is not limited to fuel costs alone. Due to production inputs based on petroleum derivatives, the costs of essential automotive components such as engine oils, tires, plastics, synthetic rubber, and coating materials are also directly increasing. Consequently, cost pressure and narrowing profit margins are experienced throughout the entire chain, from production to retail.
The de facto closed Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 11% of global maritime trade. It also plays a vital role in the flow of energy, parts, and semi-finished products for the automotive sector. According to analyses, the current disruption affects approximately 20% of the global oil supply. Under normal conditions, 20 million barrels of oil passed through here daily.
Experts point out that a supply shock of this magnitude is considerably larger compared to historical examples. The current crisis has the potential for an impact 3 to 5 times greater than the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s.
Ships diverting to alternative routes are forced to circumnavigate Africa, which extends shipping times by approximately 14 days and creates additional fuel costs of up to $1 million per voyage.
Automotive supply chains are already known for their complex and interconnected structure on a global scale. However, the current crisis has once again exposed the weaknesses of the "just-in-time production" model. Delays in the shipment of parts, raw materials, and components lead to extended delivery times, inventory uncertainty, and disruptions in production planning.
According to the US-based Auto Care Association, potential disruptions in core production components such as tires, wiring harnesses, plastic parts, and oils can directly halt production lines. This forces manufacturers to seek alternative supply sources, further increasing costs.
According to analyses, the crisis has also lowered growth expectations for the automotive market's growth expectations. Global light vehicle growth, previously projected at 3.8%, has fallen to the 0-2% range in updated forecasts.
Furthermore, consumer preferences are changing. There is an increasing shift towards smaller, fuel-efficient models, hybrid, and electric vehicles, instead of large-engine, high-consumption vehicles. Especially in the Asia-Pacific region, electric mobility is now seen less as an environmental choice and more as an economic safeguard.
Aluminum Supply Also Under Serious Risk
The effects of the war in Iran are not limited to energy and logistics alone. The supply of aluminum, which is critically important for global industry, is also under serious risk. This is because the largest producer outside of China (Aluminium Bahrain - Alba) is located here. An average vehicle contains approximately 200 kilograms of aluminum.
The global aluminum market, already facing a supply deficit, has become more fragile with developments in the Middle East. The region accounts for 18% of global aluminum demand (excluding China) while producing 9%. According to analyses, there is an export risk of 4 to 5 million metric tons. Experts emphasize that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, pressure on prices will further increase.
Indeed, initial reactions have begun to be seen in the markets. Aluminum futures contracts in New York rose by 1.1% to $3,181.75/ton, with the total increase reaching 4.5% since the start of the war. The declaration of "force majeure" by Alba, a major Bahrain-based producer, suspending its contractual obligations, was a concrete indicator of supply-side fragility.
Aviation Sector Also Under Pressure
Rising energy prices are directly affecting not only land transportation but also aviation. The increase in jet fuel prices is putting airline companies in a difficult position, while there is a significant reduction in shipments from the Middle East. According to data, while an average of eight jet fuel shipments were en route simultaneously in the past, this number has now dropped to zero. It is stated that supply could further tighten after the last shipments reached Europe.
As a result of these developments, some airline companies have started to increase prices. Air France-KLM plans to raise long-haul flight fares, while SAS increased ticket prices and announced it would cancel 1,000 flights in April. EasyJet, on the other hand, indicates that price increases might be on the agenda towards the end of summer.
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