Germany, known for its much colder climate compared to our country, is rapidly transitioning to heat pumps. Despite rumors that they perform poorly or even don't work in cold weather, heat pump sales in Germany reached a 48% market share in 2025. Just one year prior, in 2024, heat pumps had only a 27% market share.
Even more interestingly, natural gas-based heating systems remained at 44%, meaning heat pumps became the number one choice for homes in Germany.
Massive Government Support
One of the biggest reasons for this, of course, was government incentives reaching up to 70%. The government covered costs at various stages, particularly considering factors like the transition from natural gas to heat pumps and efficiency. This resulted in a grant of 3.8 billion Euros for 300,000 heat pumps. Thanks to a system that mandates a minimum of 65% renewable energy in new buildings, heat pumps have achieved a 74% market share in such constructions.
Geothermal Heat Pump Types:
Shortage of Heat Pump Technicians
The sole reason preventing faster growth in the heat pump market share is cited as the lack of certified installation personnel and skilled labor.
This shortage leads to delayed orders and hinders the implementation of projects. Nevertheless, despite all these challenges, the technology has proven itself with a total of 28 million units across 16 European countries.
Support for Good Technologies, Not All
While providing this support, Germany is also selectively developing heat pump technology. For instance, starting January 2025, only models that can communicate with the grid and do not overload it will be supported. As of January 2026, strict noise limits have been imposed on air-source heat pumps, and only silent ones are now supported. From January 2028, only natural and atmosphere-friendly refrigerant gases (such as Propane, CO2) will be supported.
Rise of Hybrid Systems
This year, instead of a 44% increase like last year, a moderate 10% growth is expected. Among the rising trends, heat pumps that also provide cooling functionality are projected to account for 38% of new sales. The widespread adoption of hybrid heat pump and natural gas systems is also anticipated. These hybrid systems utilize natural gas on very cold winter days, which can reduce both installation costs and heating expenses. Government support considers it sufficient if at least 65% of the annual heating demand is met by renewable energy.
Commercial Heat Pump on Building:
Our country should produce its own heat pumps and renewable electricity, breaking its dependence on fragile fossil fuels and other nations. This shift will keep money within the country, and growing companies in the market will both create employment and turn their acquired experience into export success.
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